Return-Path: Delivered-To: Dan@adiyatgroup.com Received: from altar43.supremepanel43.com by altar43.supremepanel43.com with LMTP id UBgLN1v/fGIeDAAAuJ0bIg (envelope-from ) for ; Thu, 12 May 2022 12:36:43 +0000 Return-path: Envelope-to: Dan@adiyatgroup.com Delivery-date: Thu, 12 May 2022 12:36:43 +0000 Received: from mx64050.sh02.musvc.com ([93.174.64.50]:43783) by altar43.supremepanel43.com with esmtps (TLS1.2) tls TLS_ECDHE_RSA_WITH_AES_256_GCM_SHA384 (Exim 4.95) (envelope-from ) id 1np83e-0001HE-Ur for Dan@adiyatgroup.com; Thu, 12 May 2022 12:36:43 +0000 DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; s=ml02; d=mamglobal.com; h=Message-ID:From:Reply-To:To:Subject:Date:MIME-Version:Content-Type: Content-Transfer-Encoding:List-Id:List-Unsubscribe:Feedback-ID: X-CSA-Complaints:List-Unsubscribe-Post:To:From:Subject:Reply-To; t=1652359001; x=1652661401; bh=edN4sjnuySio2tq5wcvOrmp8nLe8j3QkI8j5akZUY60=; b=U9rjTY/kke82ZaDMv+Bwrz19lcxVHfdql/dsZAV+4THvUUAfvMyWKwYU27kdFr/t2+kA8g7lJD3G tpUeOVBHXnaSgtgpc6ZPq9p/48ioRh9xlH3ImQt24hTtRioCJuCLjrIsEWRYuEHaxmazykW0uimC ZzOSPtnfXLua6jmDN51m0TaVnRQLGrAAxJj7ZmGmRte9xzPqVkVtTZK/vEZVDnqRJiQV/mAmDaIR 0bDRqn+MTJi3+vjN/wIUorK6B/vc7H/KgyD8RTLjVmAgWHxEaqdDSjVMcuhb5e1/5D7vvAFSdk/c RTvYnzFEFYCTtxuIruuHE75pMtoGSCr0/tO29A== Message-ID: <202205121405174793.3678.407.35236@musvc.com> From: =?UTF-8?Q?Info_=3A=3A_MAM_Global?= Reply-To: info@mamglobal.com To: Dan@adiyatgroup.com Subject: =?UTF-8?Q?1ST_Quarterly_Report_for_202?= =?UTF-8?Q?2_=26_Monthly_Report_April_202?= =?UTF-8?Q?2?= Date: Thu, 12 May 2022 14:05:18 +0200 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-Priority: 3 X-Abuse: Please report abuse here: http://customer35236.musvc2.net/p?c=35236 X-rpcampaign: MAMTradingCorporation_407 List-Id: <35236.4> List-Unsubscribe: , Feedback-ID: 35236:35236.312:musvc X-CSA-Complaints: csa-complaints@eco.de X-msgtype: t Auto-Submitted: auto-generated X-Auto-Response-Suppress: OOF, AutoReply List-Unsubscribe-Post: List-Unsubscribe=One-Click X-BPS1: 3678:4:312:35236: X-Spam-Status: No, score=0.7 X-Spam-Score: 7 X-Spam-Bar: / X-Ham-Report: Spam detection software, running on the system "altar43.supremepanel43.com", has NOT identified this incoming email as spam. The original message has been attached to this so you can view it or label similar future email. If you have any questions, see root\@localhost for details. Content preview: If you are having trouble reading this message, please click here to view it in your browser M. A. M. Trading Corporation. Newsletter Dear Mr. Charleston, Content analysis details: (0.7 points, 5.0 required) pts rule name description ---- ---------------------- -------------------------------------------------- 0.0 URIBL_BLOCKED ADMINISTRATOR NOTICE: The query to URIBL was blocked. See http://wiki.apache.org/spamassassin/DnsBlocklists#dnsbl-block for more information. [URIs: musvc2.net] 0.2 HEADER_FROM_DIFFERENT_DOMAINS From and EnvelopeFrom 2nd level mail domains are different -0.0 SPF_PASS SPF: sender matches SPF record -0.0 SPF_HELO_PASS SPF: HELO matches SPF record 0.1 MIME_HTML_ONLY BODY: Message only has text/html MIME parts 0.0 HTML_MESSAGE BODY: HTML included in message -0.1 DKIM_VALID Message has at least one valid DKIM or DK signature -0.1 DKIM_VALID_AU Message has a valid DKIM or DK signature from author's domain 0.1 DKIM_SIGNED Message has a DKIM or DK signature, not necessarily valid -0.0 T_SCC_BODY_TEXT_LINE No description available. 0.5 KAM_NUMSUBJECT Subject ends in numbers excluding current years X-Spam-Flag: NO 3D""

If you are having trouble reading this message, pleas= e click here to view it in your browser

=
3D"MAM

M. A. M. Trading Corporation.
Newsletter

&nbs= p;

Dear Mr. Charleston,

 

=0AWe are back to business after the holiday season - Ramadan & = Easter holidays in April.
=0AHope you all had a good time with your = near and dear ones.
=0ALet=E2=80=99s start by updating you on the va= rious trends in the Spice markets across the globe.

=0AP= epper=0A

=0AVietnam:
=0AVietnam pepper harvest is o= ver and the Cambodian season across the border has started. Both the yi= elds are below normal this year. Normally this should see a jump in pri= ces but the market sentiment is weak, thus impacting the prices. During= April the prices hovered in the range of 79,000 to around 82,000 VND (= 150 USD/MT). The selling pressure was less from farmers and when the pr= ice came down to 78,000 VND they almost stopped selling.<= /p>


=0AHarvesting of the new crop is now o= ver and is confirmed to be around 10% less than last year. The producti= on is expected to be 190,000 MT as compared to 208,000 MT last year.=0A=

 

On the demand side, the market sentiment is= weak, thus impacting the prices. However ongoing Ukraine war crisis an= d low demand from China coupled with volatility in exchange rate agains= t the USD in most of the Asian and African markets, have also affected = the demand. However, markets of US and EU Countries have seen reasonabl= y good activity in the 1st quarter.


=0ALet=E2=80=99s discuss the Vietnamese pepper export statisti= cs for each of the continents for the first 4 months of 2020 and 2021 a= nd 2022 which will give you a clear direction of where we are heading a= nd understand situation better.
=0A

=0AAll figures are i= n Metric Ton.
=0A3D"=

=0AAmericas
=0AExports are stea= dy

=0AEurope<= br>=0AExports are steady

=0AAsia
=0AExports are down due to reduced imports from = China and Pakistan.
=0A

=0A All figures are in Metric Ton.=0A
3D""
=0A=0AThe 2022 figures are the lowest imports = by China in past several years and is mainly due to COVID restrictions = and the closure of the road border with Vietnam.=0A

=0A= Africa=0A
The drop is mainly due to the fall in Egyptian im= ports. The imposition of import restrictions (henceforth, all imports o= nly by LC and no LC has been opened for contracts signed since February= ) to control the currency which has devalued by more than 20% in 4 mont= hs, on the other hand, we have seen some increase in imports from Alger= ia.=0A

=0AThe overall drop in Exports has been compensated by t= he drop in production between 2019 to 2021 as below.=0A

=0A = All figures are in Metric Ton.= =0A=0A
3D""

=

 

Summing Up:=0A
Currently, the prices are low, but once China opens= up again and the stocks of the other countries run low, the demand wil= l shoot drastically and we will see a high jump in the prices.=0A
<= br>=0AWe can revert with firm offers upon your request with the respect= ive grades.=0A =0A

=0ABrazil:=0A
The Brazil= ian crop this year is around 90,000 MTS and with approximately 40,000 M= TS being already exported in the first 4 months we are seeing a very st= eady and firm market in Brazil in the 1st Quarter of this year, playing= in a narrow margin of 3,800 =E2=80=93 3,900 USD/MT FOB levels. A big s= urprise from Brazil has been the exchange rate, which has been stronger= against the USD by around 20%, (On 1st Jan 1 USD=3D 5.57 REAL which ap= preciated to 4.62 REAL on 21st April and on 12th May it is 5.16 REAL). = Thus, we have seen an initial appreciation of 20% and past 15 days we s= ee a 10% depreciation, due to which the prices dropped a little by arou= nd 75 USD/MT in the past 2 days. The little drop was because new crop f= rom Espirito Santos has started coming in the markets and the crop is e= xpected to be better than last year. The price for ASTA 570 GL is aroun= d 3,800 to 3,850 USD/MT, FOB, levels.=0A

=0AIndia:=0A
The harvest in India is complete and has seen a 20% drop in = quantity. The domestic buyers are active in purchasing for storage. Aft= er 5 weeks, the prices have risen in India.=0A =0A

=0A =0ASri Lanka:=0A
The harvest this year, is expected to be l= ower by 15 -20%, combined with a high demand, specially from India, whi= ch will keep the prices high. Even though the Sri Lankan Rupee deprecia= ted against the USD (380.00 LKR/USD) the local prices have shot up and = USD prices have remained firm. As Sri Lanka is going through an unprece= dented economic and political crisis it is very difficult to forecast a= nything at present.=0A

=0AIndonesia:=0A
The= new crop will enter the markets in June and it is too early to predict= the crop size. The pricing of Indonesian pepper is stable, but exports= are hindered due to unavailability of shipping space.=0A

=0AOur view:=0A
It goes without saying WE STRONGLY R= ECOMMEND TO BUY AT PRESENT LEVELS as when China and other markets deman= d starts you will see a very sharp rise in prices.=0A

=0A = =0ACloves=0A

=0AMadagascar:
=0AThe new crop is= now over and this season, we saw a bumper crop of around 25,000 MT. Th= e prices at the beginning of the crop started at 8,200 USD/MT, FOB and = dropping in Mid-Jan to 7,600 USD/MT, FOB and then steadily going up to = 8,600 USD/MT, FOB levels today.
=0AThis year we saw India importing = around 7,000 MT from Madagascar, but the most surprising part is Singap= ore buyers buying in large quantity for stocking and re-exporting to In= donesia as they are very bullish on this commodity. The news from the m= arket is Singapore and Indonesia buyers have bought around 15,000 MT in= the past few months and stocks now in Madagascar is maximum around 2,0= 00 to 3,000 MT.
=0AIndia this year has been a very defensive player,= mainly because of liquidity issues, as many importers lost a lot of mo= ney on almonds imports (around 100 Mn USD), thus affecting the market p= rices of other commodities including Cloves due to tight liquidity. Onl= y the smart buyers, who are strong financially have been stocking big q= uantities and waiting for the market to go up which will definitely hap= pen in the near future. The buyers will then realise that they have mis= sed the bus but would not be able to cover any quantity from the intern= ational market.=0A

=0A =0AIndonesia:
=0AThi= s year the new crop, which is expected to start in July, is forecasted = to be less as compared to last year.

=0A = All figures are in Metric Ton.=0A
3D""
=0A=0AAs seen, the crop size has decreased b= y 50% over the past 3 years. The Tobacco companies in Indonesia, requir= e a minimum of around 100,000 MT/Annum for cigarettes manufacturing and= they have been quietly buying whatever is being offered from Madagasca= r without disturbing the market prices. Price in Indonesia is firm at 9= ,200 USD/MT, FOB levels for standard quality, local Rupiah price is aro= und 115,000 per Kg. with a few tobacco companies buying locally.=0A
=0A =0ABrazil:
=0ANo crop available for export= this year.

=0AComoros:
=0ANew crop expected= to start in July.

=0ASri Lanka:
=0ANo Crop = is available for export this year
=0A
Our view:=
=0AWe are extremely bullish on this commodity and have been rec= ommending to buy this commodity at these levels for the last few months= and still very strongly recommend it to our buyers, as we will see a b= ig upside anytime as soon as the buying demand returns, which should be= in June after summer is over in India.=0A

=0A =0A= Cashew=0A <= br>
=0AKernels:

3D""
=0AAfter a long peri= od of silence from the end of last year, the market seemed to re-activa= te from end of April first week when buyers returned to the market to i= nquire about the prices, and a few purchases were done at very good pri= ce. Due to this, the market reacted instantly and prices shot up at a f= airly rapid rate as seen above.=0A

=0AAfrican kernels have been= trading almost the same level (C&F) as the higher end of Vietnam price= s. Discerning buyers have been willing to pay a premium for better qua= lity, traceability and sustainability.=0A

=0AWith their Premium = Quality, Indian processors continue to sell at a significant premium to= Vietnam & Africa (although India=E2=80=99s share of global kernel trad= e is now down to about 10%).=0A

=0AAn Interesting (and encouragi= ng) development which is observed is that, since the beginning of 2021,= the prices for Broken grades have moved up faster due to reduced yield= s, coupled with higher demand. Differential from Wholes is trending dow= n but there is scope for further narrowing before we reach the levels s= een before mechanisation started. Disappointingly, demand and different= ial for larger Wholes has come down significantly.=0A=0A

=0AAt = the beginning of the year, the cashew industry was looking at:=0A
&n= bsp;=E2=80=A2 Comfortable supply
 =E2=80=A2 Steady growth in de= mand
 =E2=80=A2 COVID uncertainty
 =E2=80=A2 Logistic c= hallenges & volatility
 =E2=80=A2 Flat market

=


=0AOn almost all these factors, things ha= ve changed:
=0A
=0A=E2=80=A2 Although we are only half way = through the Northern crop, it is almost certain that crops in Vietnam &= Cambodia are significantly lower than initial expectation. There is so= me concern about crop in some parts of India and West Africa but at thi= s time, it seems that impact of this may not be very large.
=E2=80=A2= Although it is too early in the year to talk about demand growth, the = fact that Vietnam exports in Q1-2022 are lower than Q1-2021 (for the fi= rst time in several years) is something to be watched closely. This cou= ld be because of multiple reasons =E2=80=93 buyers had bought in excess= in Q3/Q4-2021; Processing in Q1-2022 was low because of extended perio= d of low kernel prices; Shipping uncertainties in 2022 and its impact o= n kernel availability in importing countries.
=E2=80=A2 COVID =E2=80= =93 fortunately, its impact on the world is receding except for China.<= br>=E2=80=A2 Logistic challenges continue - specially the longer transi= t time due to blockages in China and congestions at many transit ports = leading to roll-overs and cancellations. Freight rates and its volatili= ty have come down from 2021 peaks=E2=80=93 at least for the time being = - but the rates are still much above the long-term average. With Oil pr= ices above 100 USD, there does not seem to be much chance of any signif= icant relief in freight rates in the medium term.=0A

=0A=0ARCN:


=0ADes= pite kernel prices being flat (and even soft) in Q1-2022 =E2=80=93 RCN = prices were firm and moved up (even in the middle of the harvest of the= Northern crops). IVC & Ghana started trading around $ 1200 and swiftly= moved up to $ 1275-1300. They continued moving up in April and recent = trades have been as high $ 1350-1370. Premium for Benin has been unusua= lly high =E2=80=93 around $ 300. Senegal & Gambia are trading in the r= ange of $ 1650-1700.=0A

=0ALooking ahead:=0A=E2=80=A2 There is some uncertainty on demand due to general economic = weakness in most countries on the back of inflation and Russia-Ukraine = situation. Will demand be flat or will there be a reversal of the growt= h that we have seen in the last 3-4 years?
=E2=80=A2 On the supply s= ide, it certainly looks that kernel availability in 2022 will be lower = than 2021 with reduced crops in some origins and lower kernel yields in= most.
=E2=80=A2 During SH of 2022, processors will be using higher = priced RCN. Processing and logistic costs will be higher due to inflati= on (and so will carrying costs with interest rates moving higher).
=0A= Considering all factors, unless there is dramatic fall in demand, downs= ide is limited to some unexpected increase in supply (or decline in RCN= prices). And there is possibility for reasonable increase (not a jump)= in prices in the coming weeks.

=0AOur View:=0AThe increased activity and jump in prices seem to be a recovery= signal, which everyone was looking for, however, in our opinion, the m= arket seems to be overexcited as the actual ratio of orders confirmed/i= nquiries is only 30-40%. In other words, it is believed that somebody i= s trying to make a virtual wave to shake up the market back to what it = should be.
=0AHowever, we think, this is still a perfect time to buy= when the price is still affordable and the risk-reward ratio is more t= owards reward, as prices expected to increase in the future but not ver= y rapidly.

=0A =0ACassia
=0A
Vietnam:<= br>=0A =0AIt is the mid- season for Cassia and the supply is abundant. = Also, China borders being closed has put pressure on the prices. Howeve= r, the long-term scenario is quite positive.

=0A =0AOur = View:
=0AMarket should remain stable at these levels.

=0A =0AC= offee

=0A =0ABrazil and Vietnam:
=0A =0AThe Arabica coffee futures market, without major news for t= he sector, continues to operate with technical appreciations for the ma= in contracts in the trading session on the NYSE.
=0AAccording to ana= lysts the market is already priced based on the available information = about the production in Brazil other producing origins; analysing facto= rs such as the supply & demand, which is more adjusted; the war between= Russia - Ukraine, and the consumption.
=0AAll of this has already b= een absorbed by the market and therefore, there are no significant chan= ges in the prices.
=0AFrom now on, in addition to the harvest in Bra= zil, export data from other producing origins may once again influence = the volatility of coffee prices. The problems continue to be closely wa= tched by the industry.
=0AFor Canephora/Conilon beans, the crop has = begun in the main producing centres in Brazil, such as Esp=C3=ADrito Sa= nto and Rond=C3=B4nia, and the expectations of the productive sector ar= e for a bigger and good quality crop.

=0A=0AWith the work in the= initial phase, exports of the product in April are still slow, althoug= h they have gained some pace compared to March, when they had a sharp d= rop, according to data from the Council of Coffee Exporters of Brazil (= Cecaf=C3=A9).
=0AFor the largest Conilon grain cooperative in Brazil= , the harvest is expected to grow, but the supply is still less because= the producers are waiting a little more to harvest more mature and bet= ter quality grains.
=0AThere is also caution on the part of coffee g= rowers in closing deals, given the sharp rise in input costs.
=0ACan= ephora beans are expected to account for just over 30% of the crop this= year in Brazil, the largest global producer whose main cultivated vari= ety is arabica.
=0AAccording to the latest forecast by state-owned C= onab, the robust and Conilon crop is expected to grow 4.1% compared to = 2021, to 16.96 million 60 kg bags, while the Arabica crop - with harves= t starting between May and June - should total 38.8 million bags, an in= crease of 23.4%.

=0A=0A=0AOVER ALL SUMMARY AND VIEW


=0A =0AThe world has just come out of C= OVID after facing multiple lock downs, millions of people dying in the = past 2 years and now is currently facing an unprecedented situation wh= ich is the last nail in the coffin - Wars, Inflation, rising interest = rates, currency devaluation, COVID lock down once again in China and m= any other challenges at regional levels.
=0AAt Global Levels, amid = all the turmoil - April has been a month of prayers, new year celebrati= ons for many in Asia, Easter, Ramadan and many more spiritual and relig= ious activities.
=0AAll the above have been affecting all the commod= ities and how so?

=0A =0ADemand:
=0ADemand f= or all above commodities in the Q1 2022 is in a bearish territory and t= echnically weak but all the fundamentals are strong.=0AImports of all a= bove commodities to major consumer countries, namely China, Eastern Eur= ope, Pakistan, Iran, Egypt has fallen between 50-75% as compared to the= same period last year. Was this due to a lack of consumption led deman= d- No. This happened mostly due to geopolitical actions taken by govern= ments.=0A =0A

=0A =0A =0A =0ASupply:
=0AGlo= bal balance sheet presented before remains intact and no major changes = are expected so far except for the Cloves crop in Indonesia.=0A
=0APrices:
=0AStrong resistance from farmgate. De= spite a slow offtake prices remain range bound.=0A

=0AO= ur view:
=E2=80=A2 A hungry beast is waiting to be unl= eashed in terms of all commodities especially from China,
=E2=80=A2= Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt and other consumers who have reined in imports= will ultimately run out of stocks and will have to import once their l= ocal stocks are exhausted.
=E2=80=A2 Most importantly all the above = commodities are holding their prices and will continue to do so.
=E2= =80=A2 We however feel that this year 2022 the real effect of COVID led= actions are now impacting the world economy with high inflation, high= interest rates, exchange rate volatility , high freight charges and l= ogistical issues etc which should keep the business subdued for the yea= r as frankly for our commodities we did not see an big impact during CO= VID and had good business in the past 2 years.

=0A =0A =0A = =0A =0AMAM Trading Assurance:=0A
We assure you our = best services at all times, with our guarantee to fulfil all our commit= ments and making sure that all contracts are honoured; the goods are sh= ipped as per the confirmed grades and qualities.=0A=0A =0A =0A

<= br>Thanks and Best Regards,

Masood Saifude= en.

M.= A.M. Trading Corporation. 

 
M. A. M. Trading Corporation.
Telephone (O): +912223452052 Mobile: +919967623727 / +91= 9819123727 / +919820049352
Email: trade@mamglobal.com / masood@mamgl= obal.com / mariya@mamglobal.com 
Website: www.mamglobal.com


= =
3D=
= =
<= font style=3D"line-height:30px">Message sent with   3D"Logo=
Unsubscribe  |  Forward to a friend
3D"